How the Candidates Rank, Inside House and Senate

WASHINGTON — Imagine this scenario precisely one year from this week:

--Democrats meeting in Atlanta are deadlocked over selection of a presidential nominee. Each of three front-runners has between 25% and 35% of the delegates.

--Some party faithful suggest a few old pros retire to a smoke-filled room. (Although federal law will have banned smoking on most airplane flights, it will not apply to political gatherings.) But since there has not been a convention deadlock since 1952, no one knows who should participate.

--Into the picture step House Speaker Jim Wright (D-Tex.), Senate Majority Whip Alan Cranston (D-Calif.) and other congressional leaders. “We have selected . . . . and we have enlisted the support of our state delegations, ensuring that he will be our party’s nominee,” they proclaim in a written statement.

A fantasy? Not necessarily. Several factors could give congressmen unprecedented power as the new kingmakers at next July’s Democratic convention.

Federal lawmakers can certainly claim to be in a position to judge who can best serve as President and work most effectively with Congress. In addition, the continued weakening of state political parties has made Washington the nation’s epicenter of partisan activity. And the expected 4,158 delegates at the Atlanta convention are to include 254 members of Congress and an additional 362 Democratic National Committee members.

How, then, do senators and congressmen rate their active presidential contenders--both the Democrats and the Republicans, who also could face a deadlock at their New Orleans convention a year from next month?

The two big winners, so far, are Vice President George Bush and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.). Bush forces recently staged a rally on Capitol Hill to announce that 65 of the 177 House Republicans have endorsed his candidacy. “This is a tremendous step forward in our campaign effort,” Bush said. “As a former congressman, I truly value these endorsements because I know how close this group is to their constituents back home.”

For Bush, this had added sweetness because the House members were turning their backs on a long-time colleague, Rep. Jack Kemp (R-N.Y.), whose presidential campaign has been slow out of the starting blocks. To add insult to injury, 10 of New York’s other 13 House Republicans announced their support for Bush. On the other hand, some Republicans pointed out that many Bush supporters were old friends or owed him a favor, and do not promise fervent commitment.

Gephardt, who chairs the House Democratic Caucus and has been on the cutting edge for many issues, has excelled in recruiting congressional support. According to his aides, more than 70 congressmen publicly endorsed him. When Gephardt announced his candidacy in St. Louis, 21 of them were on the platform with him. Many House colleagues have pitched in to help Gephardt raise money and accompany him on campaign swings.

In politics, however, there are no permanent friendships--or enemies. When Gephardt led the House fight this spring for tough sanctions against nations with a large trade surplus with the United States, his strongest critics included congressmen who had issued ringing declarations of his skills. They included House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dan Rostenkowski (D-Ill.), Majority Leader Thomas S. Foley (D-Wash.) and Anthony C. Beilenson (D-Beverly Hills.)

His allies say that they should not be expected to agree with him 100% of the time. “I make no bones that I disagree with his position on trade,” said Rep. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who backs Gephardt’s candidacy. “But even when we disagree, he keeps trying to make his position more workable. Dick has the ability to be a leader on a daily basis, he perceives issues, he has the right values and can be the most knowledgeable President we have had on many issues.”

Congressional endorsements by no means guarantee success. But they help. In 1984, House Democrats helped anchor Walter F. Mondale’s rocky ship after his losses to Gary Hart.

As the Mondale campaign showed, your best friends also can be your toughest critics. Thus, some congressional allies have already warned Bush that he must work at building an identity separate from President Reagan’s. “I’ve been brutally frank with him,” a House Republican backer said this week. “I am concerned about his prospects.”

Kemp has about two dozen House supporters, but many are far more committed than Bush’s allies. “About a dozen of us are part of a core group that meets regularly to see what we can do to help Jack in areas such as organization, fund raising and issues,” said Rep. Daniel E. Lungren, (R-Long Beach). Their problem, in the House and with GOP voters generally, is contending with Kemp’s often long-winded and esoteric speeches.

For Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.), a close second to Bush in most polls, his role as Senate minority leader has allowed him to gather chits. Among his likely supporters are two senators popular in politically critical states: Charles E. Grassley of Iowa and Warren Rudman of New Hampshire.

As one of Congress’s most influential members, Dole places a major campaign emphasis on his legislative skills. He freely discusses issues and his accomplishments--even tax increases and limits in Social Security cost-of-living increases, possible campaign liabilities.

On the Democratic side, three senators are declared candidates--Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee and Paul Simon of Illinois. Since the latter two have only served in the Senate since 1985, they have registered a modest impact. But each had served in the House, where Gore was viewed as a strong promoter of new themes and Simon was a hard-working liberal. Neither, however, took the political initiative as aggressively or had as many accomplishments during his House years as Gephardt.

On Biden, first elected to the Senate in 1972, the legislative record is mixed. He co-sponsored a plan for radical cuts in the budget deficit, but it made little progress. On foreign policy, he has been a leader in promoting arms control and aid to Israel. As the senior Democrat--and now chairman--of the Judiciary Committee, he has sought the middle ground on crime and civil liberties issues. Sometimes he has infuriated liberal interests, who wish he displayed a commitment equal to Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.); but his harsh criticism of Reagan’s Supreme Court nomination of Robert H. Bork revealed a bolder approach, which could prove risky in his campaign.

From a congressional perspective, Gov. Michael S. Dukakis (D-Mass.) is an unknown, perhaps suspect for the same reasons that subjected Jimmy Carter to criticism and, ultimately, failure on Capitol Hill: He does not know the congressional folkways. Ex-Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt is even more of a mystery.

Jesse Jackson, of course, is well-known by Democrats--one of his problems. Some members of the Congressional Black Caucus privately voice concerns that he dominates the black political community, making it difficult for their own activities to share the limelight.

Because members of Congress, no matter their persuasion, have had so much experience in politics and the business of government, they have the self-confidence to believe they know what is in the best interest of their party and the public. If no clear front-runner emerges from the multicandidate field in each party, these lawmakers may find themselves in a welcome position at the two national conventions: kingmakers for a week.