State of the Union Has Prime Timing

WASHINGTON — President Bush’s State of the Union message tonight will be a signal moment for his presidency: not only a semiformal kickoff for his reelection campaign, but also his first detailed explanation of what he wants to do if he wins a second term.

Much of his message will come as no surprise. On foreign and domestic issues, aides said, Bush will declare that he has achieved great things but still has more to do.

In foreign affairs, the president will ask Americans to “stay the course” in securing peace in Iraq and will call for new efforts to promote democracy in the Middle East, aides said.

But if the speech includes surprises -- and for presidents, the State of the Union is an almost irresistible opportunity to surprise -- they are likely to come on domestic policy, where aides said Bush wanted to demonstrate his care for workers battered by the winds of economic change.

The details of the 6 p.m. speech remain under wraps, but White House officials’ vague descriptions suggest that the president will unveil a battery of proposals to help the unemployed, including federal funds for job training and tax breaks for health-care costs.

The political purpose is twofold: to take the spotlight away from the Democratic candidates and to repair Bush’s standing among moderate voters concerned about the slow pace of the economy’s recovery.

The president’s crusade for tax cuts and his other policies have cemented his image in the public mind as strongly conservative, not centrist, pollsters said.

In recent weeks, Bush has begun to revive his favorite self-description as a “compassionate conservative,” and aides suggested that the “compassionate” face of his domestic agenda is likely to be prominent tonight.

“This is his first opportunity to lay out, for the whole country, what the program for a second term will be,” said David Gergen, who worked on similar speeches for Presidents Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton. “This speech is about a mandate. It’s a speech that says: ‘Our work is still unfinished, and don’t change horses in midstream.’

“In the Neustadt view of the presidency, this is when you accumulate power for the future -- by seeking a mandate,” Gergen said, referring to the late Harvard University scholar Richard Neustadt, whose book “Presidential Power” is considered a classic of modern political science.

Bush previewed his anticipated theme in Atlanta on Thursday, telling campaign donors: “In three years, we’ve done a lot. We have come far, but our work is only beginning.” His speech tonight will be divided roughly equally between foreign policy and domestic concerns, aides said.

“He’s going to talk about the dynamism of the economy, how it’s changing, [and] how we as a country and as a government have a responsibility to help workers and families as they adapt to a changing economy,” one senior official said.

To that end, officials said, the White House has been considering proposals to make health-care expenses tax-deductible for low- and middle-income families, and to increase federal funding for job retraining programs at community colleges.

Aides said the speech would reaffirm conservative economic priorities that Bush had proposed already, including making his already-enacted tax cuts permanent (under current law, they expire in 2010), and remaking the Social Security system to include individual retirement accounts for younger workers.

But those ideas are not likely to appear as the centerpiece of the speech, one aide said, disappointing conservative activists who wanted Bush to emphasize the idea of an “ownership society” that would reduce the government’s role in retirement savings, health and education.

Instead, officials said, the speech will take Bush’s three favorite themes -- “staying the course” in the war on terrorism, using tax cuts to strengthen the economy and fostering traditional family values -- and try to combine them into a broad vision that will appeal to swing voters as well as committed Republicans.

On foreign policy, Bush will defend his decision to invade Iraq as “the right decision ... It’s made our country [and] our world safer,” an aide said.

He will assert that progress is being made there, in the war on terrorism, and in the administration’s effort to persuade North Korea and Libya to dismantle weapons of mass destruction, the aide said. And he is likely to call on Syria to follow suit.

Bush will also renew his call for a generation-long American effort to promote democracy in the Middle East, and may call for new programs and increased funding, one official said.

“This is a time to unite the American people around big priorities,” Bush spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters who asked for a preview of the speech. “It is a time that requires leadership that brings the country together around great goals and great challenges, and I think you will hear the president talk about that.”

In that sense, the speech may resemble the State of the Union messages that two of Bush’s recent predecessors, Reagan and Clinton, gave at the same point in their presidencies, before winning their second terms.

In 1984, the thoroughly conservative Reagan used his State of the Union speech to propose bipartisan compromises on the federal deficit.

In 1996, the centrist-liberal Clinton used his to declare that “the era of big government is over” and position himself squarely in the middle of the political spectrum.

“There are three things the president needs to do” in the speech, said Kenneth Duberstein, who was chief of staff to Reagan (and has been consulted by Bush’s reelection campaign).

“First, he has to be presidential. Coming on the heels of the Iowa caucus, he needs to show the contrast between a candidate with his sleeves up and a president speaking before the Congress.

“Second, he needs to be bipartisanly partisan: He has to say things that will make Democrats stand up and applaud, not just Republicans.

“Third, he has to do what his father couldn’t do: demonstrate that he has the vision thing ... that he has an agenda beyond what he’s done in the first term.”

It is also an opportunity for Bush to improve his chances for reelection by stealing some of the Democrats’ thunder on issues like health care and education, said Michael Deaver, who was an advisor to Reagan.

“What we did in 1984 [when Reagan faced reelection] was try to negate what we saw as the Democrats’ negatives on us before the campaign began,” Deaver said. “Reagan’s highest negatives were his records on education, environment and women. He addressed all three of those and, by the time the election rolled around, he had neutralized them.”

Republican pollster Bill McInturff said he expected to hear some bold proposals from Bush tonight. “The Bushes, especially after watching their dad in 1992, know that if you’re not on offense in politics, you’re on defense,” he said. “The Medicare bill [passed by Congress with Bush’s strong support] may not be universally popular, but you’re fighting about what Bush proposed. You’re not saying: ‘What has Bush done? Why haven’t we done anything in the last four years?’ ”

The speech was scheduled unusually early this year; Bush’s previous State of the Union addresses were given Jan. 28 and 29.

Gergen noted that the timing, only one day after the Democratic caucuses in Iowa, “will do as much to take the glow off the Democratic victor as anything.” But the White House insisted that the timing was unrelated and merely a matter of Congress’ convenience.

On Wednesday, the day after the speech, Bush will travel to Toledo, Ohio -- in a state and a region his campaign aides consider crucial to his reelection -- to talk further about his message on job creation and help for the unemployed, they said.

The president will go on to appearances in Phoenix and Roswell, N.M., before returning to Washington.

*

Times staff writer Edwin Chen contributed to this report.